Europe is at War with Russia

There's no avoiding reality... any longer

There is much conversation in the communications-verse indicating the EU is having difficulty grasping simple facts. Fact one is: the EU is at War with Russia. Hasn't figured it out?

If there is one continent on earth that should understand when it is at war, that continent is Europe. It's not that they haven't figured it out, it's that they lack the will to take the necessary actions. These actions, done usefully, will convey an appropriate understanding of reality to Putin, his allies, and the world.

The EU, so far, seems too willing to employ the strategy of waiting and hoping that "somebody" saves them. This has the strains of tragedy written all over it. Their next steps are simple and well known. They just need to take them.

Each step is preceded by a call to Putin to stand down and leave Ukraine. Additional activities involving Putin’s “Ally without limits” should be taken in course.

Step 1: announce the internal mobilization of troops. This can start with Britain, Germany, France, Finland and Poland, and spread to others. But, ya know, just try keeping the Lithuanians back.

Step 2: Start to mobilize these troops. Get them to their bases. Get ready to move. Each nation from Step One should contact Putin and allow him an opportunity to both understand, and stand down, in Ukraine.

Step 3: Move these troops towards the border with Ukraine, and towards the border between Finland and Russia. This will help the EU convey, formally, its understanding of Russian weakness. At this point, the US will need to make public and private decisions relative to its position on the EU’s actions.

This generates and off-ramp for everyone, or more serious engagement with Putin’s “forces”. Additionally, Putin’s forces will need to decide whether Putin is really the guy Russia needs. Steps 1-4 can usefully generate such thoughts.

Step 4: Remove all limits on Ukraine's use of weapons. While this seems like a small step, it should be. Ukraine is the point of the spear, while the EU is taking aim with many more spears. (see below)

My guess is that at Step 1 Putin will bluster all over himself. His "ally without limits" will step in with a more workable, and still unacceptable, proposal to end the war. Kim will say…something.

By step 2's start, Putin will call for more North Koreans. Kim may demur - he may have thoughts of developing a more fruitful ally in Iran. Putin will need to either bite the bullet and draft Russians of Russias cosmopolitan areas into the army (listen for a cracking sound), or find ways to establish meaningful talks with Ukraine. Here the momentum will more clearly run in favor of Ukraine. Risks will remain high.

By the time of Step 3, Putin will again be threatening to use nuclear weapons: As he has for years. At this point the US will conduct multiple studied, frank and earnest conversations with Putin and with Russia's military via whatever route yields "understanding".

Step 3, possibly Step One, will also ignite euro-protests against the war. OK.

Step 3 will be the point at which all those EU nations not yet in the midst of a call up, commence Step One. (These kinds of mobilizations should have begun three years ago.) The US and EU ramp up sanctions on Russia’s energy businesses.

Step 4: Ukraine transfers ATACMS to its forces in Kursk - extending their "range" by a couple hundred miles - and lets fly at Russian oil infrastructure.

Here it all gets messy, like war. This is all phenomenally risky, like ignoring cancer. Confronting the thing that wants to kill you or take your freedom is a necessity. The EU nations know this. So far, the EU nations have lacked leadership and allowed their communication to be disrupted by a hope that the US will save them.

To this EU weakness Putin applies the disdain of a tsar. His secret police orchestrates kind of a shadow war against EU targets in Germany, Britain, France, Poland, and so on. Putin treats these nations they way he treats Russians who stand up for themselves, like fodder. Like people who are defeated and just need reminding. While awful, actions such as these is how history forms its questions: Will the EU stand up for itself?

Power is listening.

Ideally, Putin would have met his window by step 2, but Russian leaders tend the hang on and fight until the last Serf has surrendered his overused knees. But Xi might be tempted to offer Putin, and maybe Assad, they all share a common religion, shelter from the storm.

Russia has demonstrated, more clearly every day, how lethal weakness can be when it is not faced down by opponents with the means to shatter this weakness. None of this should be taken lightly. Neither should it be ignored because it presages tragedy and death. The latter are how Russia spells victory. Not opposing Russia means welcoming, in one way or another, Russian victory. The EU needs to act like they are at war, because they are.