Trump, Nuclear Proliferation, and Destabilization
In His Bid to be King, Trump Risks the World
Nuclear Proliferation and Trump
During Trump’s first term he set the stage for more nuclear proliferation by destabilizing regimes the West had put in place to prevent nuclear proliferation. Most famously, Trump withdrew from the agreement with Iran (Iran Nuclear Agreement) thereby destabilizing the alliance which imposed restrictions on Iran, and encouraging Iran to pursue its own nuclear weapons. Which Iran is presently on course to do.
It should be said that Trump replaced the Iran Agreement with a frown face, called “Maximum Pressure” - right out of the adolescent clubhouse policy manual - which failed to accomplish any of its goals. This campaign, renewed in 2025, does two things: it presses Iran closer to Russia, and fails to deter Iran’s nuclear program.
Historically, Iran’s nuclear machinations come at the tail end of a nuclear proliferation spasm authored by China. China first helped Pakistan achieve nuclear capacity. Then Pakistan fed the “know how” to Iran and to North Korea. On the flip side, sort of, France helped Israel to acquire nuclear know how. [this, obviously, is the short version]
Trump, not to be outdone, advanced his reputation for incompetence by bailing out of mid-range missile defense agreements with Russia. Russia responded, as we have seen in Ukraine, by building hypersonic medium range missiles which are nuclear capable. Trump’s resumption of the “Maximum Pressure” campaign/policy/whim/notion, picks up where the last left off: in a sea of fecklessness flavored by destabilization.
Destabilization
Destabilization continues in Trump’s second term. Most recently, Trump further destabilized any non-proliferation regime consensus, by cutting ties with Ukraine. Recall that in the 1990’s, the US and Russia, in return for Ukraine’s agreeing to give up its nuclear weapons, guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty in return for security guarantees from both Russia and the US. (Sound familiar?)
It’s not that the war in Ukraine would not have happened if Trump were President in 2022. It’s more that Ukraine would not have been invaded in 2022 if it had nuclear weapons. Part of Putin’s goal in excising Ukraine from the face of the earth is to prevent another nuclear armed state on its border (China and North Korea are the others).
As Trump ploddingly communicates that he sides with Putin in Russia’s war on Ukraine, the world is watching. Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons, and now is fighting off one nuclear armed aggressor, Putin, and is about to have to do without US support in its fight for survival. With friends like these…. Trump couples his assertions about NATO’s article 5 by implying the US may no longer be bound by it.
Each of these actions compose destabilization writ large by a hand inspired by cowardice. Trump’s hand.
Proliferation and Three Kings
In the meantime, as the world watches, staunch US allies must be coming to a realization. Trump will likely withdraw the US support (nuclear umbrella) these allies have come to rely on. Japan, South Korea, and Poland (add Australia and New Zealand, Indonesia and the Philippines) are all looking down a gun barrel from different distances. The gun - from which power is dispensed - is held by Xi of China. Putin, perched as a shirtless imp on Xi’s shoulder, helps to aim the gun.
As Trump communicates to Putin and Xi that Trump sees the world in 3 spheres, The West, The North, and the East, (The South to be divided up later) these nations, and others, are seeing more clearly that having nuclear weapons is the necessary currency for supporting or enabling sovereignty.
Trump communicates that he will be “King of the West” by threatening Canada, Mexico, Panama and Greenland. Spreading around the relative border demarcations of his proposed sphere of influence. Putin has already explained what he believes his sphere ought to be (Syria’s new “government” should pay attention, and expel every Russia asset they can identify before Russia moves back in and re-installs Assad - likely under the guise of (with the support of Trump) a battle against “terrorism”).
Xi, for his part, has communicated what he believes his sphere should be. And is currently explaining this to New Zealand and Australia. Taiwan, more a gateway drug to Xi’s hallucination about Chinese Centrality, allows the Sphere’s center to incorporate the entire South China Sea.
Trump’s bargain is to enable these three Kings to “rule the world” - just like every odd adolescent has dreamed of. Trump’s efforts to destabilize the US is his ante in the poker game for the world. His withdrawal of support for Ukraine, a raise. His “Maximum Pressure” campaign a confidence man’s nod to Putin. His “take Gaza” ploy is aimed at reassuring Israel’s Netanyahu.
The stakes for the people of the world could not be higher.
Destabilization, Again
Vast changes in international systems occur in the same pattern: A little at a time, then all at once. Some country, full of lust for what others have, moves aggressively to take “it”. WWI and WWII are the primary examples of this. Putin’s attempt to “take Ukraine” is another. This knife’s edge is where Trump is placing the world by pursing his adolescent dream of being King.
As the US Senate, and to a smaller degree the House, remain prone, they abet this reckless gamble. The Senate has handed Trump more than just his nominees. He’s handed him a power vacuum. Once the province of the Senate and House, Republicans have handed Trump a free hand in all aspects of our government. Given that our Constitution, which created our government, is built on Checks and Balances, the prospect of collapse is present, and growing.
Trump, we can see, is a Weak Man. (Harris, for example, shredded Trump in the Presidential debate and Trump was too scared of her to agree to a rematch.) Weak because he lacks the curiosity, and ability to have ideas, compose policies, then fight for those policies in the open for the country to see and assess.
Democracy, because it shines sunlight on every element of power, helps us identify the cowards. Trump’s actions are a form of political cowardice. Cowardice, make no mistake, is a powerful tool. It makes everyone who accepts its presence weaker. Cowardice’s influence expands when, at its center, is a weak man. This foments a cascading weakness that only time, sometimes a lot of time, can arrest.
Checks and Balances to the Rescue?
The Senate, because tragedies are written this way, can remove the cards from Trump’s hand, and destabilize the entire poker game going on between Putin, Trump and Xi. It can do this by starting to slow and roll back many of Trump’s Executive Orders, and restoring government agencies Trump is decimating. (If the Senate actually believes these need to be decimated, or something similar, they can do it in the open during their coming budgeting process - like adults, or at least politicians, always do, or should.) For the US to be successful, the Senate must re-emerge in its constitutional role.
Hiding behind Trump’s skirts is no way to battle the emergence of a King. Allowing the emergence of a King puts each and every Senator at risk. At risk because those who bent the knee and allowed this to happen, are the only ones who can straighten the knee and roll it back. Thus, risk. Senators who are paying attention should take note, and start to straighten their knees while they still have them.
Nuclear proliferation is something to be avoided. While it is perceived to provide a ticket to enduring sovereignty, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, are all relative hell holes. Their respective regimes are caught in that forever landslide which history surveys as failure. The US, still able to put a stop to the game, as in WWI, WWII, can help rescue a world on the precipice of unimaginable disaster.
Autocrats are not wise or noble or brave. They cannot build a world which conveys these characteristics.
There is no such thing as a fair game when the players are autocrats (yes, oligarchs are a form of autocrat). Each participant is always in the throes of their respective appetites for more. They are driven by the appetite. It can never be satiated. They are animated by this desire, like the tragic character Tantalus from Greek Myth.
Let’s avoid tragic outcomes. Only we can.
The US Senate is the key. The Senate can be helped by the governments of Poland, Japan, and South Korea, if they start to openly discuss acquiring their own nuclear weapons. This will convey to the US that the alliances are in doubt and will compel the US, Trump, to answer in a way that either confirms this, or assuages their concerns. Trump’s childish destabilization can be better revealed in this way. Either way it is a useful exercise. (Like assessing US government agencies.)
This is not a challenge for the weak. Luckily, the Americans are here.