The Most Existential Threat Israel Has Ever Faced

... But, for Some Reason, Israel Doesn't Have the Means to Address the Threat?

Why? Why did Israel not build a bomb capable of penetrating the ground at Fordo? Why did Israel not have a bomber capable of carrying such a bomb? These are the key questions now that the US has bombed Fordo with just such a bomber and bomb.

Clearly Israel has the technology. Every day 747’s take to the air and fly significantly more weight (approximately 300,000 pounds) as the Bunker Buster bomb (30,000 pounds) all around the planet. Yet, Israel did not have the plane or the bomb necessary to address its most “existential threat to Israel’s existence”? It appears, a B-2 was not necessary.

How can this be?

Why No Endgame?

For the past several months the US and everyone else has been tapping Netanyahu on the shoulder asking what his “endgame” was? When will the killing stop? What terms is Israel seeking from its enemies? What should the “day after” look like?

It’s not that Netanyahu had no real answer. He did have an option. By the time Trump was sworn in, Israel had destroyed Hamas, and Hezbollah. Assad was serving crudités to Putin in the Kremlin. And Gaza was in shambles. Iran, and all its “command allies”, were effectively gone. (Nascent allies: Putin, Kim, Xi are a different matter.) The questions about the “endgame” were not premature.

Trump, since 2017, in each instance where Israel was in play, always gave Israel whatever it wanted. From moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem. To abandoning the “two-state” solution. To handing Israel the “Abraham Accords”. In each instance, Israel had to ante up nothing, but nods and “thanks”.

So Netanyahu did.

With Iran reeling, and the US helmed by a President who has only ever said “yes” to Israel, going after Iran was a gamble, but a small one. Israel already knew that it could overwhelm Iran’s defenses. It knew how vulnerable its targets were. It knew where Iran’s critical nuclear knowledge base lay their heads at night. The thought of needing an endgame morphed from “Hey Israel needs an endgame - A plan for the Day After!”, to “can we subcontract the endgame to the US?”.

Sub-contractor Needed, Prior Experience a Plus!

Netanyahu’s stated goal for the attacks on Iran were to eliminate the “most existential threat Israel has ever faced”: Iran’s nuclear program. He said this knowing two things. One, that Israel, by design, did not have the weapons or means necessary to eliminate this threat. Two, that the US did have weapons that might eliminate Iran’s underground sites, and might also be convinced to use them. Trump had never said “no” before.

Interesting fact. There seems to be no useful estimate of how far underground the Iranian facilities are. 300 feet? 500 feet? 1000 feet? Yes, the US has a bunker-busting bomb. A bomb that has never been used in combat, only tested. It is unknown if these tests used Fordo as a template. But how could such a test be created given that no one appears to know the depth of the Fordo site? Interesting that Israel can know the thread count of Iranian generals’ pillows, but not the depth of Fordo.

Fordo is said to be under a mountain that is 3150 feet above sea level. If the depth capacity of the Bunker Buster is 200 feet, we are being asked to believe that when Iran started building its bunker for Fordo, instead of digging deeper, the dug upwards.

Minimally, more facts are needed. Surely.

Cards to Play

Clearly, Israel’s lack of appropriate weaponry, and lack of useful data about Fordo is not a plot to drag the US into a war. To use Trump’s perspective as a lever, Israel had cards to play. Having Trump at the table and eager to demonstrate impulse and ego, must have figured into Israel’s plan. Always play the man across the table, not the cards. Trump is considered endlessly manipulable.

In Iran, Israel had no effective means for addressing what Netanyahu called “the most existential threat Israel has ever faced”. Well, they had no “hands on means”. They did have a Trump card to play. War is always a bit of a gamble. Trump’s habit of handing Israel whatever it wanted was a card in Israel’s hand.

Even as the US Bunker Buster bomb had never been used in combat, and never been adequately tested, Trump saw it as a card he could meaningfully play: Drop the bomb. Declare victory. Receive thanks from Netanyahu - effectively Trump’s 4th son. Assume the best.

But this play was not on the playing field because Iran is not a one-truck pony. This playing field is much broader, much deeper than the site in Fordo. Trump has, to say the least, stepped in it.

Too much surface, not enough depth

In the time of Trump, we are seeing a time of shallowness. Practically every endeavor Trump has engaged in has had a similar profile. Whether his deportation regime or his actions to eradicate the US’s scientific advantages, Trump is forever striking where the greatest media effect can be realized. He strikes broadly, not deeply.

Metaphors abound.

Throughout these Shallow Years, Trump has been stymied by a lack of depth, preparation, and capacity, granting his Administrations the label: Not Serious. Judge after Judge has frozen or rolled back his “governing” attempts. Unseriousness takes its toll over time. “Muzzle velocity” unseriousness erodes society’s capacity to believe Trump and his minions.

Like his many attempts to subvert US civil society, Trump’s attack on Iran, so far, can only be termed: shallow. Until we can somehow get verification that Fordo and the other targets have been destroyed, we can only know what we know. Trump’s own people are not considered reliable sources of information.

We can believe that an untested weapon, used in wartime, against a vaguely placed target was successful. Sure, we can. But why would we? Accepting success can pile on more risk and feed future “actions”.

Inspiring more questions is that multiple Bunker Busters were used. Was this also tested beforehand? (Someone dig up the contract.) So, we need to believe that each untested weapon hit exactly as the engineers designed, throughout the “busting” process all the way down to whatever depth Fordo was at.

Sure, we can believe it. We believed W’s WMD, until the facts came in. The shallowness of Trump and Trumpism spin us towards not believing the Administration’s assertions.

While the Administration’s minion-speak allows Trump maximum leeway in controlling “truth” it also hollows out society’s willingness to believe Trump’s people when they speak. Trump’s own words are so full of self-regard and mangled thoughts, that, here too, society enters and leaves these encounters thirsty for facts.

Where is Israel’s rationale for not building a bomber capable of carrying a Bunker Buster? Given that Fordo and related structures composed the “most existential threat to Israel existence, ever” this is a question the media should be asking. Repeatedly.

Yes?

Participants Accept All Risks

We still do not know what the Endgame might be. Israel’s Netanyahu has not yet come up with one. Or has it? Trump seems unaware that there is such a question. Iran is contemplating its own malevolent answer.

During Covid, as Trump pursued policies aimed at denying Covid was a threat to humans, he held frequent re-election campaign rallies. Large events were being identified as “super-spreader” events. From weddings, to conferences, to campaign rallies. As Covid wore on, and the body count grew, rather than decrease rallies, Trump doubled-down on his battle with reality - his standard practice. And his rally organizers started posting signs: “Participants Accept All Risks”.

Noted.

To engage in war is to accept the wealth of risks present and ascending across the battlefield space. This space, today, extends around the world. Trump has just accepted this smorgasbord of risks whether he knows this, or accepts this, or not.

Since no US preparation was done for “the day after” prior to the strike, and since we do to yet know whether the strike was successful or even what the definition of success is for this US engagement, we’re stuck, waiting.

During Trump’s 2017-2020 Presidency one crisis hit: Covid. Trump’s reaction was thus: “If we stop testing, we’ll have fewer cases”. This mentality persists today. Ignore reality with purpose, and danger will recede. Adults understand Trump’s approach is a deception. In Crisis #1, Trump failed. Not much has changed in his approach. This is Crisis #2.

On the bright side, relatively speaking, Netanyahu has finally answered the “Day After” question: Please ask our Sub-contractor.

Sources:

NYT As US Considers Using Bunker-Busting Bomb…: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/20/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-fordo-bunker-buster-bomb.html

Rally at your Own Risk: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/rally-your-own-risk-trump-campaign-s-legal-message-supporters-n1230271

Trump Rally Attendees Must Agree to Not Sue Campaign…. : https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/11/trump-rally-sue-campaign-coronavirus-exposure-314353

Former National Security Adviser Says Trump Can be Manipulated with Flattery: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/25/mcmaster-trump-russia-putin-manipulate-00176287