Erratic: Trump's Special Power
Surfing Trump's Erratic Waves of Risk
Erratic.
This is the texture of Trump's participation in both foreign and domestic policy. I wholeheartedly agree with Shankar Narayan’s assessment (
) that "next time" the pro-Putin factions will be more cautious. The sad part is that there will be a next time.
Trump's focus on Ukraine is focused on how he can use Ukraine to extract "deals" from Putin. Trump seems unable to understand that Russia is a gas station with nuclear weapons. Russia is not a nation that has or will or can turn its face to the future. Its backward gaze is likely what attracts Trump in the first place. Putin embraced a "Drill, baby, drill" perspective and rode it to supremacy in Russia. Trump's "Drill, baby, drill" approach sees Putin’s as a model to be emulated.
Both Putin and Trump have turned their nations' faces from the future. Trump sees hope in this because Trump misunderstands “power”. It may be what drives him to believe that he "understands Putin". Putin, a professional autocrat, sees Trump, an amateur in most things, as a food source. So, there's a difference. This difference animates the Trump-Putin dance over Ukraine. Both believe that “just one more manipulation” of the other will bring about an event that can be termed “victory”.
In this context, Trump adds a bit of aid to Ukraine, oblivious of how or whether Ukraine succeeds. Trump does not care if Ukraine “wins”. Ukraine is merely a tool for Trump to use to leverage Putin. Repeat: Ukraine is merely a tool for Trump to use to leverage Putin. That Trump fails to understand Putin is broke is beside the point. For Trump, Russia is a “shiny thing” and he will have it! Trump believes Putin can render unto Caesar. Information to the contrary doesn't register.
The pro-Putin block tried to navigate Trump's belief system by ending US weapons deliveries. This time they discovered that not even the chaff generated by Middle East could hide their "guess" that the Trump would allow a lean towards Putin. Such surprises are no surprise.
Trump does not emit policy, he emits erratic waves. There is no process for implementing these waves. This isn't policy processing, it surfing. Surfing the erratic waters of Trump's ego-driven "gut" is not a sport that offers participants trophies. There's only ever one Trophy. And Trump only gives it to himself. Surfing, though, is mandatory.
Trump Nullification
Trump nullification is Ukraine's, and the EU's, best approach to success. To nullify the EU must supply Ukraine with all it needs - and a bit more. This is the only way to win Trump's surfing olympics - make it irrelevant. Or as irrelevant as possible. To date, Trump has been offering Putin the "war good' of "Time". Time necessary for Russia’s strategy and tactics to somehow defeat Ukraine. The pro-Putin faction's aim was to also give Putin "Space".
Specifically, Ukrainian air space.
The world saw what happened to Iran when it lost control of its airspace. The pro-Putin faction was trying to bring this reality to Ukraine. When an attacker possess both Time and Space, victory moves closer.
Apparently there are enough members of the GOP willing to stand up for what's right - at least in Ukraine, and at least for now. This adds urgency to the mission of the EU. Handing frozen Russian assets to Ukraine now, or even on a defined schedule, would help to explain to Putin why he cannot win. This is part of the “trump nullification” process. It may even explain to the US's pro-Putin faction that their efforts will never succeed.
Erratic isn’t going away. Trump’s offering of “Time” to Putin is back in play. This is all the “resumption of aid” has accomplished.
Surf’s up.